Kentucky Derby 2024: 5 storylines to watch, including Fierceness' odds at greatness and other contenders

We are deep into an age of parity for the Triple Crown series. Fifteen horses have won the 15 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes since Justify won all three races in 2018.

Every spring brings hope for a new star, even when the headlines around thoroughbred racing’s most glamorous events seem to focus more on horse deaths, trainer controversies and economic woes.

Saturday’s 150th running of the Kentucky Derby will feature several contenders with the talent to be memorable. It won’t feature trainer Bob Baffert, still the sport’s biggest name and still banned from Churchill Downs. It will go off against a backdrop of perpetual worry over the safety of the competitors.

Here are five stories to watch as we prepare to blow the bugle on another Triple Crown season.

Can Fierceness become the next great Derby winner?

No trainer does a better job getting horses to the Derby than Todd Pletcher, but Pletcher has won the race just twice despite entering more contenders than anyone in history.

Fierceness is favored to take Pletcher to the winner’s circle for the first time since 2017 when Always Dreaming won as the favorite. He’s the fastest horse in this 3-year-old class when he breaks well, as he did in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and in the March 30 Florida Derby. The Beyer speed figures, designed to rate a horse’s performance relative to track conditions and strength of the field, say it’s not close.

But there are real questions about Fierceness’ resilience when he’s not sharp out of the gate. See his third-place finish in the Feb. 3 Holy Bull Stakes after he was bumped on both sides early. Or his stinker in last year’s Champagne Stakes. He’s a monster talent who has yet to run great races back to back.

Can he break that pattern in the most important race of his life?

Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez knows how to control a Derby from the front. He did it with Authentic in 2020. If Fierceness breaks well from his outside post, might Velazquez bet that he can simply run away from the competition? That’s what Fierceness did in his dominant Florida Derby win. At the Breeders’ Cup, however, he stalked the pace and then fought off a challenge from Baffert-trained Muth to win by 6 1/4 lengths. So it’s not as if he has only one path to victory.

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